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My turn | The first results could determine the scale of the red wave | Guest comment

Everyone expects the GOP to win this cycle, but will the red tide be a tsunami?

Even late at night, it can be unclear who won in many marquee contests, with slow vote counts, late mail-in ballot deadlines and necessary runoffs if no one gets 50 percent in some states, including Georgia.

For the impatient couple, early litmus tests of just how deep and wide the red wave is might include the following.

1. there is Alan Fung the first Republican to win a seat in the Rhode Island House of Representatives since 1992?

2. Retired general Don Bolduc is one of many Republican candidates who won the primary in part because Democrats spent money to promote him, believing he would be easier to defeat in the general election. Will he, nevertheless, be able to unseat the incumbent president from the Democratic Party Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire?

3. At the local level, it will be a very big surprise if the government. JB Pritzker cannot be re-elected. And intimacy counts in horseshoes, grenades, and dancing, but not in elections, where almost winning is also called losing. The Illinois tension will revolve around several results.

4. Not much money was spent on opposing a constitutional amendment to prevent any right-to-work legislation. The hard-nosed Illinois Policy Institute has argued that it will raise taxes, while supporters have issued vague announcements claiming it will provide jobs.

5. Democrats redistricted the state Supreme Court for the first time in decades. Can they lose two races and control the venue at the same time?

6. The Illinois U.S. House map was an even more obvious fraud, designed to return 14 Democrats and only three Republicans. The risk for Democrats with such a seat-maximizing map is that some of the blue seats are pretty light blue.

The will of democratic incumbent presidents Sean Kasten (6th), Bill Foster (11th) or Lauren Underwood (14th) end up surprised by the size of the wave? Esther King, a repeat candidate, is likely the GOP’s best choice for the open 17th seat. It looks like Republicans will control the U.S. House in 2023, even if none of those races go against the map. But Illinois Republicans would appreciate an extra seat or two.

Brian Gaines is a professor of political science at the University of Illinois.


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