Traveler’s Forecast for Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving week is one of the busiest times of the year. Here’s a look at current thoughts on how our weather will develop over the next 7 days:

Forecasters are highly confident of excellent weather conditions across much of the country by Thanksgiving. With the recent cold snow spell gone, a period of dry weather is expected with daily warming in the Chicago area as well as the surrounding Midwest regions. High pressure moving southeast will hinder the northward flow of Gulf moisture. By Wednesday evening, low pressure and an accompanying cold front from southern Manitoba to the Texas Panhandle will drive south-southwest winds across the Midwest, spreading 50-degree temperatures north to the western Great Lakes.

Winds and increasing middle/high clouds will keep temperatures well above freezing through Wednesday evening. The rainfall forecast for the period from Monday to Wednesday supports this scenario. Little or no precipitation is expected in most of the country. Exceptions will be the Pacific Northwest and parts of the northern Rocky Mountains, southern Texas, and the Florida peninsula.

Thanksgiving forecast

By Thanksgiving, an upper-level wave over the northern Plains is forecast to deepen into a closed low circulation over the western Great Lakes. Model guidance diverges quite a bit on how and to what extent this process will occur, so confidence in the forecast for Thursday through Friday is moderate to low. The most likely scenario is for a cold front to sweep through the Chicago area on Thursday, bringing in an influx of cooler (though not freezing) air. As moisture from the Persian Gulf eventually gets pulled into this system, cloudiness will increase. By Thursday evening, short-term rains will pass. An influx of colder air combined with favorable upper-level dynamics also favors the possibility of light snow or flurries overnight Thursday into Friday. It doesn’t look like it will develop into a significant event, as the expected amount of precipitation remains light.

The end of the long holiday weekend looks very favorable for travel. The system is expected to be transient from Thursday into Friday, and there is a high likelihood that it will move across the Canadian seaboards by midday Sunday, leaving only snow or flurries over northern New England. A broad upper west-to-east flow will be restored, allowing dry, mild conditions to resume across much of the continental US

Next Sunday (November 27) at noon

The end of the long holiday weekend looks very favorable for travel. The system is expected to be transient from Thursday into Friday, and there is a high likelihood that it will move across the Canadian seaboards by midday Sunday, leaving only snow or flurries over northern New England. A broad upper west-to-east flow will be restored, allowing dry, mild conditions to resume across much of the continental US